Wednesday 27 August 2014
   
“I cannot prevent the French from being French.” - Charles de Gaulle
 
France’s new earthquake election? The FN in the European elections
By Jocelyn Evans, Gilles Ivaldi
26 May 2014 | General |
After 42 years, the FN has finally won a national election. After the earthquake of 21 April 2002, when Jean-Marie Le Pen progressed to the presidential run-off against Jacques Chirac, the party’s fortunes steadily declined to a European nadir of 6.3 per cent in 2009. But from that election onwards, ...

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Can the FN beat the UMP into second place in the European vote?
By Jocelyn Evans, Gilles Ivaldi
12 May 2014 | Polls & Forecasts |
In the wake of its success in March’s municipal elections, the spotlight is now on the FN’s performance in the European elections later this month. The municipals had been seen as an acid test of the party’s level of implantation at the local level. As a race which had ...

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What is left of the left in Marseille?
By Gilles Ivaldi
04 April 2014 | Parties |
Last Sunday, Marseille voters took away the PS’s last hopes of political redemption, giving the UMP mayor Jean-Claude Gaudin an absolute majority and the keys to the city council for another term, his fourth since 1995.

Election results

The results of the first round showed Patrick Mennucci’s socialists ...

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Wrapping it up: a final take on the FN in the 2014 municipals
By Jocelyn Evans, Gilles Ivaldi
02 April 2014 | Polls & Forecasts |
With the municipal elections already fading from view, we take a last look here at the aspect we focused most on throughout the campaign and the two rounds – the performance of the FN – and revisit our own forecasts.

The national scorecard

The municipal elections confirmed ...

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The shock of the French municipals was the PS defeat, not FN success
By Jocelyn Evans, Gilles Ivaldi
01 April 2014 | General |
As unemployment continues to rise and France struggles to meet EU obligations to reduce its public deficit, the French municipal elections, held on 23 and 30 March, are bad news for the French socialists. For a party whose local politicians tried to make the election one of local issues, the ...

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Post-first round FN seat forecast
By Jocelyn Evans, Gilles Ivaldi
28 March 2014 | Polls & Forecasts |
Many commentators have referred to the need for the FN to expand its network of local councillors and grassroots. The institutionalization of the party requires to establish a more solid base throughout the country. The party needs new cadres in their thousands to prepare for future elections where political presence ...

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No more polls! Re-doing the Marseille forecast
By Jocelyn Evans, Gilles Ivaldi
27 March 2014 | Polls & Forecasts |
So much for the PS’s hopes of political salvation in Marseille. The results of the first round showed the socialists down to an unexpected 20.8 per cent of the vote, in third place behind Jean-Claude Gaudin’s UMP at 37.6 per cent and Stéphane Ravier’s FN at 23.2 per cent.

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Taking stock of the FN’s performance in the 2014 French municipal elections
By Jocelyn Evans, Gilles Ivaldi
26 March 2014 | General |
The results of the first round of France’s municipal elections on Sunday were announced as a bombshell on the French press’s front pages – Peur sur les villes (fear over the cities) for Libération, Municipales, le FN triomphal, le PS sanctionné (The FN triumphant, the PS ...

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Forecast of FN municipal seats
By Jocelyn Evans, Gilles Ivaldi
21 March 2014 | Polls & Forecasts |
Forecasting the FN vote at an election has become a cottage industry. After our own efforts in 2007 and 2012, with varying degrees of success, focus has shifted to Sunday’s municipal elections, where Marine Le Pen’s leadership of a revitalised FN in a period of economic ...

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A kingmaker FN in Marseille?
By Jocelyn Evans, Gilles Ivaldi
20 March 2014 | Polls & Forecasts |
In the final run up to the Marseille municipals, the latest CSA poll suggests a tight race on the Canebière, with Jean-Claude Gaudin’s UMP polling 43 per cent of the second-round vote against 41 per cent for the left and 16 per cent for Stéphane Ravier’s FN. Last ...

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Municipal elections 2014: an estimation of the FN’s results
By Sylvain Brouard, Martial Foucault
17 March 2014 | Polls & Forecasts |
In 500 Signatures’ debut guest blog, Martial Foucault and Sylvain Brouard provide a forecast of the FN’s likely performance in next week’s municipal elections. They look at the party’s performance across a series of elections in the 56 main cities in France, and find that the surge in the FN’s ...

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Forecast update for the Marseille municipals
By Gilles Ivaldi
11 March 2014 | Polls & Forecasts |
Last month, we suggested that the Marseille municipal election could result in a hung municipal council and relative majority for the left, with the FN in the position of king maker. According to the latest BVA poll, the chances that the PS could win the city have ...

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A microcosm of left success – the mayoral race for Lyon
By Jocelyn Evans
28 February 2014 | Candidates |
The city of Lyon represents a hub of economic innovation and hi-tech industry, making it the second richest city in France, after Paris. It is also a diverse city, with 14% of its population born outside France. Politically, the preponderance of an educated liberal workforce has kept Lyon very much ...

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A tale of hope and demons. Left and right in the Marseille municipals
By Jocelyn Evans, Gilles Ivaldi
17 February 2014 | General |
The UMP right-wing opposition is set to win the municipal race in March, but the city of Marseille is giving the socialists one faint ray of hope through the current political gloom.

The latest IFOP and CSA city-wide polls suggest that the city ...

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The mayoral race for Paris – an unmoveable feast
By Jocelyn Evans, Gilles Ivaldi
06 February 2014 | Candidates |
As the socialist executive continues to struggle with economic problems and disastrous polls, the UMP looks set to win the forthcoming municipal elections in March. Earlier hopes of a massive ‘blue wave’ having waned, the opposition party has recently settled for the lesser ambition of recapturing ...

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Expert forecasting of the European FN vote
By Jocelyn Evans, Gilles Ivaldi
31 January 2014 | Polls & Forecasts |
Significant blogspace is currently being devoted to the performance of Extreme Right parties in the May European elections. Amongst those, the French FN is receiving more than its fair share of coverage. Partly this is due to the high polling scores that the party is enjoying – an ...

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Welcome to '500Signatures', for analysis and commentary on French politics and elections

This blog is produced by Jocelyn Evans (University of Leeds) and Gilles Ivaldi (University of Nice)

 
PREVIOUS POSTS
France’s new earthquake election? The FN in the European elections
Can the FN beat the UMP into second place in the European vote?
What is left of the left in Marseille?
Wrapping it up: a final take on the FN in the 2014 municipals
The shock of the French municipals was the PS defeat, not FN success
Post-first round FN seat forecast
No more polls! Re-doing the Marseille forecast
Taking stock of the FN’s performance in the 2014 French municipal elections
Forecast of FN municipal seats
A kingmaker FN in Marseille?
Municipal elections 2014: an estimation of the FN’s results
Forecast update for the Marseille municipals
A microcosm of left success – the mayoral race for Lyon
A tale of hope and demons. Left and right in the Marseille municipals
The mayoral race for Paris – an unmoveable feast
Expert forecasting of the European FN vote


42
posts have been published
since 10 January 2012

 
ABOUT THE AUTHORS

Jocelyn Evans [@JocelynAJEvans] is Professor of Politics at the University of Leeds

Gilles Ivaldi is a CNRS researcher in political science based at the University of Nice

 
BOOK
 
RECOMMENDED






 
CATEGORY
 
DATA

- Forecasting the FN vote in Second-Order elections (updated 12 May 2014)

- Forecasting the FN vote in Second-Order elections (Jan. 2014)

- Polling scores by polling type (CATI v CAWI) (updated 20 April 2012)

- Estimating Marine Le Pen's vote in the 2012 presidentials: an experiment (November 2011)

- Data for the 2011 expert forecast survey (in CSV file)

 

 


 
Last modified on Monday 12 May 2014
Copyright Gilles Ivaldi - @2012-2014