Saturday 13 February 2016
   
“I cannot prevent the French from being French.” - Charles de Gaulle
 
Ils ne passeront pas – the stemming of the FN tide in the regional run-offs
By Jocelyn Evans, Gilles Ivaldi
14 December 2015 | General |
The Front national (FN) in France has a problem. Despite topping the polls in half the regions in the first round of the regional elections, it was unable to convert a single one, even in a region – Alsace-Champagne-Ardenne-Lorraine – where the Socialist runner-up refused to stand down to allow ...

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The FN on the threshold of regional government
By Jocelyn Evans, Gilles Ivaldi
11 December 2015 | General |
Entirely as expected, the Front national (FN) has emerged as the most popular political party in the 2015 regional elections, winning 27.8% of the vote. With just over 6 million votes, the FN is nearing Marine Le Pen’s presidential high of 2012, besting all other election performances since 2010. ...

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Regional elections and the anti-Muslim backlash
By Jocelyn Evans, Gilles Ivaldi
05 December 2015 | General |
Local elections do not normally raise much interest within a country, let alone internationally. Low turnout, parochial issues and invisible national leaders all contribute to limiting the saliency of subnational ballots, compared with legislative or presidential races. Little could be further from the truth for Sunday’s regional elections in France, ...

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Politics in a time of war?
By Jocelyn Evans, Gilles Ivaldi
23 November 2015 | Events & Controversies |
The Paris attacks of 13 November have put France on a war footing. In the wake of the attacks carried out by the so-called Islamic State on bars, restaurants, the Bataclan concert hall and the Stade de France, killing 129 people and wounding another 352, the political parties ...

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A right-wing landslide but no far-right tsunami: the departmental election run-off
By Jocelyn Evans, Gilles Ivaldi
30 March 2015 | General |
With all eyes inevitably on the crash of the Germanwings Airbus A320 in the French Alps, the second round of the 2015 departmental elections received relatively less media attention than would normally be the case. As we discussed in our previous post, much could be learned about ...

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The Front national is not France’s first party
By Jocelyn Evans, Gilles Ivaldi
23 March 2015 | General |
Coverage of the departmental elections during the campaign has been muted. For a new electoral level covering an entirely redistricted set of territories, and using a radical new tandem of male/female candidatures to ensure gender parity, the column inches devoted to the race were minimal in France, and almost ...

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What to expect in next month’s French departmental elections
By Jocelyn Evans, Gilles Ivaldi
27 February 2015 | General |
To date, the new departmental elections of March 2015 don’t seem to be triggering much interest among the French public. As we have discussed previously, there are many indications that these local elections will serve simply as a referendum on national politics and the government’s economic trajectory.

Overall, ...

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Departmentals 2015: the new French elections no-one seems to care about
By Jocelyn Evans, Gilles Ivaldi
26 February 2015 | General |
In just under a month’s time, France will go to the polls for a new set of elections – the departmental elections. The ballot structure is new, the districts are new, and they will replace the entire set of sub-regional assemblies in a single, two-round ballot.

The ballot paper ...

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Beta-testing social-liberalism 2.0
By Jocelyn Evans, Gilles Ivaldi
18 September 2014 | General |
It is difficult to exaggerate the parlous state in which François Hollande and the left-wing government in France find themselves shortly after the rentrée politique. Whilst it was abundantly clearly that Hollande’s job after his victory in May 2012 would not be an easy one, the most pessimistic of commentators ...

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France’s new earthquake election? The FN in the European elections
By Jocelyn Evans, Gilles Ivaldi
26 May 2014 | General |
After 42 years, the FN has finally won a national election. After the earthquake of 21 April 2002, when Jean-Marie Le Pen progressed to the presidential run-off against Jacques Chirac, the party’s fortunes steadily declined to a European nadir of 6.3 per cent in 2009. But from that election onwards, ...

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Can the FN beat the UMP into second place in the European vote?
By Jocelyn Evans, Gilles Ivaldi
12 May 2014 | Polls & Forecasts |
In the wake of its success in March’s municipal elections, the spotlight is now on the FN’s performance in the European elections later this month. The municipals had been seen as an acid test of the party’s level of implantation at the local level. As a race which had ...

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What is left of the left in Marseille?
By Gilles Ivaldi
04 April 2014 | Parties |
Last Sunday, Marseille voters took away the PS’s last hopes of political redemption, giving the UMP mayor Jean-Claude Gaudin an absolute majority and the keys to the city council for another term, his fourth since 1995.

Election results

The results of the first round showed Patrick Mennucci’s socialists ...

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Wrapping it up: a final take on the FN in the 2014 municipals
By Jocelyn Evans, Gilles Ivaldi
02 April 2014 | Polls & Forecasts |
With the municipal elections already fading from view, we take a last look here at the aspect we focused most on throughout the campaign and the two rounds – the performance of the FN – and revisit our own forecasts.

The national scorecard

The municipal elections confirmed ...

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The shock of the French municipals was the PS defeat, not FN success
By Jocelyn Evans, Gilles Ivaldi
01 April 2014 | General |
As unemployment continues to rise and France struggles to meet EU obligations to reduce its public deficit, the French municipal elections, held on 23 and 30 March, are bad news for the French socialists. For a party whose local politicians tried to make the election one of local issues, the ...

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Post-first round FN seat forecast
By Jocelyn Evans, Gilles Ivaldi
28 March 2014 | Polls & Forecasts |
Many commentators have referred to the need for the FN to expand its network of local councillors and grassroots. The institutionalization of the party requires to establish a more solid base throughout the country. The party needs new cadres in their thousands to prepare for future elections where political presence ...

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No more polls! Re-doing the Marseille forecast
By Jocelyn Evans, Gilles Ivaldi
27 March 2014 | Polls & Forecasts |
So much for the PS’s hopes of political salvation in Marseille. The results of the first round showed the socialists down to an unexpected 20.8 per cent of the vote, in third place behind Jean-Claude Gaudin’s UMP at 37.6 per cent and Stéphane Ravier’s FN at 23.2 per cent.

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Welcome to '500Signatures', for analysis and commentary on French politics and elections

This blog is produced by Jocelyn Evans (University of Leeds) and Gilles Ivaldi (University of Nice)

 
PREVIOUS POSTS
Ils ne passeront pas – the stemming of the FN tide in the regional run-offs
The FN on the threshold of regional government
Regional elections and the anti-Muslim backlash
Politics in a time of war?
A right-wing landslide but no far-right tsunami: the departmental election run-off
The Front national is not France’s first party
What to expect in next month’s French departmental elections
Departmentals 2015: the new French elections no-one seems to care about
Beta-testing social-liberalism 2.0
France’s new earthquake election? The FN in the European elections
Can the FN beat the UMP into second place in the European vote?
What is left of the left in Marseille?
Wrapping it up: a final take on the FN in the 2014 municipals
The shock of the French municipals was the PS defeat, not FN success
Post-first round FN seat forecast
No more polls! Re-doing the Marseille forecast


51
posts have been published
since 10 January 2012

 
ABOUT THE AUTHORS

Jocelyn Evans [@JocelynAJEvans] is Professor of Politics at the University of Leeds

Gilles Ivaldi is a CNRS researcher in political science based at the University of Nice

 
BOOK
 
RECOMMENDED






 
CATEGORY
 
DATA

- Forecasting the FN vote in Second-Order elections (updated 12 May 2014)

- Forecasting the FN vote in Second-Order elections (Jan. 2014)

- Polling scores by polling type (CATI v CAWI) (updated 20 April 2012)

- Estimating Marine Le Pen's vote in the 2012 presidentials: an experiment (November 2011)

- Data for the 2011 expert forecast survey (in CSV file)

 

 


 
Last modified on Monday 12 May 2014
Copyright Gilles Ivaldi - @2012-2014